The 2025 holiday season is shaping up to be the most complex in over a decade. According to eMarketer, retail sales are projected to grow just 1.2%, the slowest since 2009, as tariffs, inflation fatigue, and tighter budgets weigh on consumers.
But even as growth slows, shopping behaviors are still shifting fast. AI is becoming the new front door to discovery. Malls are reinventing themselves as cultural hubs. Generational divides are reshaping the holiday timeline.
The season ahead is full of contradictions: inflation-weary consumers might be spending less, but new shopping behaviors are still opening up fresh opportunities for marketers. As some brands pull back, marketers who stay visible have a chance to capture attention at lower costs and gain a long-term advantage.
To cut through the noise, our experts are weighing in on the top trends that will be making an impact this holiday season–and where smart brands can find an edge.
Source: eMarketer
1. The always-on holiday
Prediction: Holiday 2025 will be the first season where Black Friday and Cyber Monday officially lose their dominance, with shoppers spreading purchases across an extended cycle of deals and inspiration.
Shoppers are breaking up with the “big bang” holiday weekend. Black Friday and Cyber Monday are no longer guaranteed conversion events–instead, consumers are demanding earlier discounts, personalized offers, and value that extends across the season.
This is the year of the always-on holiday. Conversion isn’t tied to one day or week anymore; it’s earned through a continuous drumbeat of brand and performance.
Holiday 2025 will penalize brands that disappear between tentpoles. The winners won’t just chase a single shopping day; they’ll sustain a consistent presence that compounds attention. As rivals pull out of the market, continuity becomes the most efficient growth lever left.
2. AI becomes the first touchpoint
Prediction: By the end of 2025, AI assistants will rival search engines as the primary starting point for Gen Z shopping journeys, reshaping discovery from the ground up.
Source: Adobe Analytics
The numbers tell the story: generative AI traffic to US retail sites surged 4,700% year-over-year. 10% of Gen Z shoppers are already starting their journeys with an AI assistant.
Just as Google became the gateway 15 years ago, AI is now the starting point of discovery and decision-making.
AI isn’t a shiny toy; it’s the new gateway to discovery. This season, brands that optimize for conversational visibility and shoppable personalization will achieve efficiency that competitors don’t even realize exists yet. Waiting until AI is “mainstream” means showing up late to the future of retail.
3. Malls make a comeback
Prediction: 2025 will cement malls as cultural “third spaces,” transforming them into hybrid commerce-and-media hubs that brands can’t afford to ignore.
Contrary to the “retail apocalypse” narrative of recent years, malls are thriving again. According to Placer.ai, indoor mall foot traffic jumped 7% in May 2025, with Gen Z and Millennials leading the revival. These shoppers see malls not just as shopping centers, but as community spaces blending entertainment, social connection, and retail.
Malls are reinventing themselves as cultural hubs where commerce and community intersect. For brands, they’re as much a media channel as a distribution channel.
Malls are no longer just places to transact… they’re media channels hiding in plain sight. The smartest brands won’t just sell in-store; they’ll design experiences that echo online, creating measurable brand equity. If you treat the mall like a warehouse, you’ll miss its power as a stage.
4. Value-driven cart psychology
Prediction: In the 2025 holiday season, reassurance will outweigh discounts as the most powerful conversion driver, with flexible returns and transparent pricing becoming bigger levers than promotions.
Affordability is still the leading cause of cart abandonment, and unclear return policies remain a major source of hesitation. Consumers are making cautious, risk-managed decisions: they’ll pay if they trust the brand, but they’ll walk away if they’re nervous about the deal they’re getting.
Winning brands reduce anxiety as much as they reduce price.
This year, free shipping, transparent pricing, and frictionless returns won’t be “perks”; they’ll be the deciding factor in conversion. In an economy where confidence is scarce, trust is the cheapest lever left. Brands that ignore that will bleed efficiency.
5. The Generational Holiday Divide
Prediction: Holiday 2025 will mark the tipping point where one-size-fits-all calendars collapse; marketers will have to build generation-specific strategies or risk losing entire audience segments.
Source: McKinsey & Company
Generational divides are essential to consider this holiday season. 37% of millennials start shopping before October, while Gen Z is both driving AI adoption and fueling the mall revival. Meanwhile, 22% of boomers say they won’t participate at all.
Holiday planning is no longer one-size-fits-all. Each generation has different expectations, channels, and timelines, and strategies need to reflect that.
Millennials, Gen Z, and boomers aren’t just on different timelines; they’re in different holidays altogether. The brands that tailor their approach to each audience will stretch every dollar further, while those that don’t will waste budget chasing ghosts.
Conclusion: The Challenger Holiday Mantra
Holiday 2025 won’t deliver the blockbuster growth of years past. But volatility creates its own openings. Brands that stay in-market, particularly at the mid- and upper funnel, will face less competition, lower costs, and outsized share gains.
That’s the Challenger 2025 Holiday Mantra :
- Don’t choose between brand and performance. Build both.
- Don’t chase one shopping day. Win across the season.
- Don’t see volatility as risk. See it as opportunity.