Scroll Interrupted: What Happens If TikTok Gets the Boot?
Since April 2024, when President Biden signed the “TikTok Ban” bill into law, critics and creators alike have wondered what a true ban will mean for the app. The law requires TikTok’s parent company ByteDance to divest from TikTok by January 19, 2025, or face a ban in the United States.
While the outcome is still uncertain, marketers need to start preparing now for what a ban will look like for their strategy and make contingency plans for what to do if this powerful social media platform isn’t available by the end of the month.
As the situation continues to develop in real time, we’re breaking down everything you need to know about why the ban exists, what will happen to the app if it’s banned in the US, and what it all means for advertisers.
Where the ban stands with lawmakers right now
Arguments about whether or not the new TikTok law could be considered “unconstitutional” were heard in September by the US Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, which ultimately decided to uphold the law. Following the September ruling, the Supreme Court heard TikTok’s arguments on January 10 before further confirming the earlier decision in an announcement on January 17 about upholding the law.
As if things weren’t uncertain enough, President Joe Biden introduced another potential wrinkle, choosing to leave enforcement of the law up to President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump has recently been pro-TikTok and shared his appreciation for the app in the press, his support hasn’t always been so clear: Trump also chose Brendan Carr to lead the FCC, who outlined an agenda for 2025 that included banning TikTok. It’s hard to tell where exactly the new administration will stand on the issue in the future. Still, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew alluded to support from Trump in a video, signaling that Trump may support an extension.
Lawmakers’ biggest fear is that Chinese national security laws could force ByteDance to share US user data with China’s government, even though TikTok’s US information is stored on US-based Oracle servers.
Another issue is TikTok’s powerful algorithm, which some are concerned could manipulate public opinion. TikTok and ByteDance have continuously denied these allegations, with Chew appearing in front of Congress to refute the claims.
This is a developing situation, and there’s still no telling what could happen in the eleventh hour with a new presidential administration on the horizon. Luckily, we’re not completely in the dark about what a US ban might look like. Since countries like India and Afghanistan have already implemented bans on the app, we have some idea of what might be coming our way.
What will happen to TikTok if there is a ban?
If a ban does happen, the first move you can expect is that TikTok will be removed from Apple’s App Store and Google Play on January 19.
Source: CBC
Previously it was assumed that existing users who already have the app would still be able to access it via their devices. And that without updates or support, the features on the platform we’ve come to know and love will deteriorate until the app is no longer usable.
However, it’s now being reported by The Information that TikTok will indeed go dark on January 19 should the ban go into effect. Users attempting to open the app will see a pop-up message directing them to a site with more information about the ban. There will also be an option for users to download all of their data from the app so they can keep a record of their personal information.
What the law means for advertisers
TikTok shared that advertisers would no longer be able to run US-based ads if TikTok is banned. However, global (non-US) ads can still be run from US-based accounts. Also, US-based advertisers will retain access to their accounts but cannot run ads targeting the US.
For marketers worried about ad spend, TikTok has shared that they will honor refunds for reserved inventory if the app is banned. Of course, this won’t be an issue for everyone; many advertisers will not need refunds and can pause campaigns if and when that’s necessary. But the move shows that TikTok is aware of the issue and is looking to provide assurance to advertisers as the situation develops.
Despite these efforts, a ban could still be detrimental to advertisers. It will be a challenge to fully replace TikTok’s unique mix of authentic community and diverse, attention-grabbing short content if the app is unavailable.
TikTok has become an important driver in areas like commerce and social search, so brands will also need to find new platforms to fill those functions. Losing the app would be a major blow to US social commerce, which eMarketer reported grew by 26% in 2024 to $71.6 billion–heavily influenced by the growth of TikTok Shop.
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Source: eMarketer
What’s next for marketers in a post-TikTok world
Although there’s a strong possibility that a TikTok ban could be coming our way by the end of January, even a US ban doesn’t mean TikTok will be gone completely–especially since TikTok will still be available in other countries.
If you haven’t already, your team needs to start making a contingency plan so your TikTok media can be reinvested first into Meta Reels and/or YouTube Shorts. Keep in mind that Lemon8, which many have touted as a possible replacement, will likely be impacted by the January 19 ban date since it’s also owned by ByteDance.
TikTok users have also been pushing back against the ban and protesting by downloading the Chinese app RedNote (known as Xiaohongshu in China), although it doesn’t seem to currently have ad capabilities.
You should also start taking stock of your strategy to see where your audience is, whether you’re over-dependent on any one platform, and what TikTok alternatives might work for your brand. Get started by taking action right now:
- Evaluate your TikTok audiences and other channels they might be using
- Identify the most important touchpoints that occur on TikTok
- Explore alternative platforms and start testing to identify other ways to reach your audiences
- Research relevant competitors, brand hashtags, or specific keywords in new channels to assess the kinds of conversations people are having and whether the platform is the right fit for your brand
- Identify the kinds of creative and content that are currently popular on those platforms, including influencer opportunities
We’ll continue to provide updates as we hear more news about the law and how it might impact the rest of your 2025 planning. Until the ban is put into effect and we’ve seen the implications, you should still consider TikTok as a channel pending your target audience’s usage of the platform and performance toward your business goals.
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